Of course this is not perfectly accurate but since no one seems to be collecting data on # of solves until certain rares are found (unless I'm mistaken) then this is possibly the best way to guess it on your own. So if my maths are right (correct me if I'm wrong!): I now assume that 50% of players have found the Scepter in less than 95 solves, and the remaining would find it after 95 solves. Previously I assumed that I had a 50% chance to have seen the recipe. To "predict" the drop rate without other data, I can use the same formula that I used to guess the drop rate of Recipe: Vial of Sands from Canopic Jars. This is about the same number of solves it took me to find Tyrande's Favorite Doll from Night Elf fragments, which seems to indicate that the drop rate is 1% or less - as I had a significant amount of night elf solves while leveling archaeology.
Pendant of the Scarab Storm (12/17/10 8:53am EST) Ring of the Boy Emperor (12/16/10 4:58am EST) Comment by 211587Here is a breakdown of what commons/rares I had when I started the project for this item:
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